(1) Can the Penguins handle the Capitals’ third line?
It feels like no one is talking about the Capitals.
Sure, they’re hanging onto a wild card spot, but they are the one Eastern Conference team I would not want to face in April. Add another two months of adjustment to Barry Trotz’s system and a forward upgrade at the trade deadline…look out.
Every time I see them play, I’m impressed by their so-called third line of Eric Fehr, Brooks Laich, and Joel Ward. That’s a Stanley Cup third line in my mind.
I don’t see many teams that can match up head-to-head with them. Pittsburgh definitely can’t.
What makes the Fehr line so dangerous is their relentless forecheck and ability to capitalize on turnovers. One player pressures the puck carrier and a second positions himself in the middle to cut the ice in half. Most forechecking teams send the second forward to the winger on the boards, but the Capitals gladly give you this breakout pass…at first.
Pittsburgh, like most teams, constantly goes up the boards on the breakout and that’s when the trailing Washington forward collapses down and attacks. The only option for the breakout winger is to chip it off the boards and out of the defensive zone, but Washington usually has their defense in position for this as well.
As of this writing, it doesn’t look like Christian Ehrhoff will be ready for Tuesday night’s game between Pittsburgh and Washington.
That means the struggling pair of Simon Despres and Rob Scuderi will probably stay together.
That means trouble for Pittsburgh.
Despres is fine when he’s paired with an above average partner. Scuderi is very slow on the breakout though. Teams target his corner on dumps and his only options under pressure are a chip over to Despres or a reckless, blind pass up the boards.
Trotz mixed up his lines on Sunday night against Anaheim, but keep an eye on this potential matchup on Tuesday.
(2) Who will be scratched with Ehrhoff’s return?
Speaking of Ehrhoff — one question I received this week was who should be scratched to make room for his eventual return to the lineup: Robert Bortuzzo or Derrick Pouliot.
Not an easy answer.
Bortuzzo’s ceiling is limited to being a #6 defenseman in the NHL, at best. He brings a physical element that Pouliot can’t match and his poke checking is very good as a result of using what seems to be Zdeno Chara’s stick.
I can’t say enough good things about Pouliot’s potential though. In his first training camp, I thought he was already better at running a powerplay than Kris Letang. Now you can start to see him adjusting to the speed of NHL hockey.
(Related note: I wrote last month about the potential for a bonus penalty if he got big playing time and points in the second half of the season. He’s no longer eligible for those bonuses.)
Will Pouliot’s skillset help the Penguins win a Stanley Cup? Probably not.
Pittsburgh needs to get bigger and stronger on defense, especially heading into potential Metropolitan Division playoff matchups against Washington or the New York Rangers. Maybe that means swapping Bortuzzo or Pouliot in against physical or skilled teams.
Or looking to the trade market for an upgrade.
(3) Should the Penguins go all in at the trade deadline?
Good question here from Jesse Marshall:
So the cost for Winnik is a 2nd. If the Penguins make that deal, they don't pick until the 4th round. Would you do it?
— Jesse Marshall (@jmarshfof) February 15, 2015
Pittsburgh’s 2015 first round pick was sent to Edmonton in the David Perron trade. They gave up their third round pick to acquire Marcel Goc at last trade deadline. The 2015 draft is potentially shaping up to be one of the strongest in recent memory.
I wouldn’t gut the draft to add Daniel Winnik.
I understand the Penguins are in ‘win-now’ mode with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in their primes. Consider this other minor angle though.
Former GM Ray Shero went all-in at the 2008 trade deadline, sacrificing his first, second, and third round picks to chase a Cup. That aggressiveness probably paved the way for the Penguins Cup in 2009, but Shero said he regretted gutting the draft because it meant his scouts had no role in shaping the team.
A General Manager asks his staff to make enormous sacrifices throughout the season and amateur scouts have one day to perform: the draft. Gutting a draft not only leads to lack of system depth, it robs the scouting staff of their only opportunity to put years worth of work into action.
That shouldn’t be a deciding factor, but it’s just something to remember.
(4) Is Los Angeles getting desperate yet?
Nashville’s addition of Cody Franson on Sunday makes them a really tough matchup in the Western Conference.
I still like Anaheim as a sneaky Cup pick, but the Predators already had Seth Jones playing on a third defensive pair. Western Conference contenders have to be getting nervous.
One team that definitely is: the Los Angeles Kings.
LA is three points back of Calgary for the final wild card spot.  They’ve been looking to make a significant upgrade on defense since the summer but haven’t completed a deal yet.  With Franson (who they coveted) off the market, expect Kings GM Dean Lombardi to make the NHL’s next big move.
I’m guessing for Carolina’s Andrej Sekera.
(5) What’s wrong with the Penguins powerplay?
Interesting bit of information to start out this piece last week over at Pensburgh.
The Penguins are in the bottom third of the league in powerplay faceoff percentage. Â Typically, the spotlight shines on the center — in this case, Sidney Crosby — but my eyes have been telling me something else for the past few weeks.
Wingers, and to some extent defensemen, play a critical role in faceoff success too.  There aren’t many centers who can cleanly win faceoffs at the NHL level.  It’s up to the other teammates to sprint into position and win battles for the puck.
I’ve seen far too many faceoffs lately where the wingers are flat-footed or not willing to win those battles.
That said, Crosby isn’t free of blame on the powerplay either.  I received an interesting note from a reader the other day on the powerplay philosophy:
I heard on a local talk show recently that one of the biggest problems with the pens power play was that Rick Tocchet wants a shoot and net traffic first; where Sid wants a pass then traffic then shoot mentality: which has prevailed lately.
I can’t confirm or deny this disagreement. Â I only know that Crosby’s overpassing mentality is becoming a real problem.
His game against Detroit was tough to watch.
Is he still hurt?  Having confidence issues?  Unfortunately, Crosby earns more in a month than rookie head coach Mike Johnston does in a full season, so only Crosby will decide when (or if) he changes his game.
Pittsburgh needs him to if they want to have any chance of escaping the second round.